Climate Change

Introduction

As part of leadership of the G8 in 2005, the UK government has made a concerted effort to establish consensus amongst scientists on what constitutes ‘dangerous’ climate change www.stabilisation2005.com. Evidence indicates that only drastic cuts in global emissions of CO2, of two-thirds or more, can stave off ever more severe climate change. The more quickly the world can make such cuts, the lower the level at which concentrations will eventually stabilise. Business has a crucial role to play.

Climate Change impacts biodiversity by changing phenology, physiology and distribution of species as well as causing in situ adaptations to populations. In turn, predation and competition within ecosystems results in changes to community structures.

Climate change and sea level rise raise some fundamental questions about the objectives of, and approaches to, nature conservation in the UK. The Department of Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) supports a number of projects designed to research, assess and make policy recommendations on the effects of climate change on the UK Biodiveristy Action Plan (UKBAP). In addition, numerous regional and local initiatives have also been started, such as the UK Climate Change Impacts Programme (UKCIP), Environmental Change Institute (ECI) and The Wildlife and Countryside Link Biodiversity Task Force. For business, there are implications for the development of Company Biodiversity Action Plans, as well as the long term sustainability of biodiversity initiatives.

The wide range of issues surrounding the debate on Climate Change provides a challenge for companies in terms of understanding their roles, responsibilities, risks and opportunities in relation to this complex topic. With the UK’s Government’s role in leading the G8 summit and presidency of the European Union in 2005, Climate Change has been placed firmly on the political agenda. Companies increasingly need to understand the implications that this agenda has on their businesses.

Green House Gases (GHGS) and Climate Change

Before the industrial age, the carbon dioxide (CO2) level was steady at around 280 parts per million (ppm). When the Kyoto protocol was drawn up in 1997, the CO2 level had reached 368 ppm. In 2004, it hit 379 ppm. Experts predict that if CO2 concentrations rise to concentrations of 550 ppm, this will probably result in a global temperature rise of 2°C to 5°C, and a sea level rise of 0.3 to 0.8 metres by 2100, and by 7 to 13 metres over the next millennium. (A range of statistics pertaining to Climate Change science is available from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)).

Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity

The implications of climate change on biodiversity are extensive, affecting not only individual species, but entire ecosystems and the way in which these are managed.

Shifts in distribution of plants and animals

At the simplest level, changing patterns of climate will alter the natural distribution limits for species or communities. In the absence of barriers it may be possible for species or communities to migrate in response to changing conditions. Vegetation zones may move towards higher latitudes or higher altitudes following shifts in average temperatures. Movements will be more pronounced at higher latitudes where temperatures are expected to rise more near the equator.

In most cases natural or man-made barriers will impact the natural movement of species or communities. Arctic tundra and alpine meadows may become squeezed by the natural configuration of the landscape, while these and many other natural systems may be further confined by human land-use patterns. Many national parks and protected areas are now surrounded by urban and agricultural landscapes, which will prevent the migration of species beyond their boundaries.

Changing patterns of precipitation and evaporation

Rainfall and drought will also be of critical importance. Extreme flooding will have implications for large areas, especially riverine and valley ecosystems. Increasing drought and desertification may occur in tropical and sub-tropical zones, and at least one model has predicted the drying out of large parts of the Amazon.

Rapid changes

Rates of climate change and species adaptation will also be important, and these will vary at regional and even local levels. The maximum rates of spread for some sedentary species, including large tree-species, may be slower than the predicted rates of change in climatic conditions leading to localised extinctions of these species.

Species interaction

In many cases further complications will arise from the complexity of species interactions and differential sensitivities to changing conditions between species. Certain species may rapidly adapt to new conditions and may act in competition with others.

Shifting seasons

Changes in seasons are already being noticed in many temperate regions. Birdsong is being reported earlier and spring flowers are emerging when it was once winter. In agricultural landscapes changes in the length of growing seasons may improve productivity in mid-latitudes and increase the potential for arable crops at high latitudes. Negative impacts may include increased ranges of insect pests and diseases, and failure of crops in some regions from drought or flooding.

The coastal margins

On coastal margins, especially where these are backed by areas of intense human use, rising sea levels may lead to the squeezing out of important coastal habitats.

Warmer oceans

Rising sea temperatures will further affect the distribution and survival of particular marine resources. Corals have already shown an extremely high sensitivity to minor increases in temperature.

Chemical effects

In addition to causing a warming effect, increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide are known increase rates of photosynthesis in many plants, as well as improving water use efficiency. In this way the climate changes may increase growth rates in some natural and agricultural communities.

Responses to Climate Change

Over time, every individual and organisation will be affected either by unchecked climate change, or by the mechanisms adopted by business, government and civil society. Mitigating and adapting to the effects of Climate Change will require an integrated approach, such as working through partnerships. An integrated framework is represented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change below.

Conventions and Regulation

The Kyoto Protocol seeks to reduce Carbon Dioxide emissions by 5.2 % on 1990 levels by between 2008 – 2012. The EU as a whole also has a commitment to reducing emissions by 8% within that timeframe. The UK has a commitment to reducing their emissions by 12.5 % within that timeframe.

Within the UK, the Climate Change Levy is applied to all non-domestic energy use. However, a company is eligible for an 80% rebate on the levy if it meets its own voluntarily set targets for the 2008 -12 timeframe, if it chooses to sign up to the UK Emissions Trading Scheme.

Emissions Trading and Sustainable Development

There are four emerging carbon markets – at the international level (led by the Kyoto protocol), within the EU, within the US and the voluntary carbon markets. The shape of these markets and how they relate to one another is still to be consolidated, but it is clear that companies are well advised to become informed now, so that they can make the most of emerging opportunities in the voluntary carbon markets, and avoid risks that regulatory changes in national legislation may bring.

The EU Emissions Trading Scheme essentially links the national commitments of EU member states to the international marketplace governed by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC); it is an open market for the buying and selling of allowances.

Joint Implementation under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is a system whereby investment in Sustainable Development projects amongst a set of agreed developing countries can result in winning further ‘allowances’ that can then be bought and sold on the open market.

Contributions to sustainable development can also be made by companies that choose to participate in voluntary carbon sequestration projects. Independently verified carbon sequestration projects that have not yet gained approval from the UNFCCC, may still bring value to a company through the voluntary markets (e.g. Future Forests working in collaboration with the Edinburgh Centre for Climate Change ).

Climate Change, Business & Biodiversity

There are a range of projects that companies support through Earthwatch’s field research portfolio including Arctic tundra carbon dioxide production; Desertification; Ecosystem interdependence; Carbon sequestration; Biodiversity distribution; and Species responses.

The level of risk that climate change poses for the business community depends upon

• Regulations; Effectiveness of International Treaties (Kyoto and the Clean Development Mechanism)
• Science and Technology innovations (Hydrogen Economy and Fusion Energy)
• Business mitigation strategies (Increased efficiency of products)
• Human consumption growth (Depends on population growth and politics)
• Clarification of predictive models and development of appropriate management strategies (Depends upon depth and application of scientific research)

Resources

Carbon Trust

ClimateCare

Climate Leaders (US)

Defra - Business and Climate Change

Edinburgh Centre for Climate Change (ECCM)

Environmental Change Institute (ECI)

European Union Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS)

Future Forests

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

UKCIP

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

United Nations Environmental Program - World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC)

Photo Credits: Iceberg, H Russell, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)